The store is set up to give test rides from the car stereo installation bay and it appears that you can buy service plans that include the Geek Squad coming out for repairs.

This is huge news for E Bikes in the U.S.  Previous big box retailers have simply tossed the product on the shelf with no technical support and accepted returns without any attempt to remedy what might be simple problems.  Also, Best Buy is clearly not committed to a single manufacturer or even product category so, if this rollout is successful, there will finally be a solid retailer for light electric vehicles with a nationwide presence.

There were 7 or 8 workers dressed out in clean suits.  They did thermal readings of our foreheads and if the reading was high, they used a regular, oral thermometer.

For the most part everything ran smoothly and everyone on the plane took it all in stride considering we’d already been on the plane for 13 hours.  It’s just a little weird that as everyone seems to be calming in the U.S. about the flu, things are getting ramped up over here.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jxGrv4qAk1TE8drbKu_OFPhBaVaQ

Everybody in the industry focuses on the price and performance of batteries as the one hindrance of electric cars.  That is certainly a problem but electric drive technology is also an expensive category that isn’t getting cheaper very fast.  AC Propulsion (www.acpropulsion.com) had a sports car called the Tzero using an AC drive more than 12 years ago.  They now use that drive in their EBox Scion retrofit.  The retrofit costs $55,000 without including the cost of the car because, while they also claimed that their Tzero was just a proof of concept that would lead to inexpensive EVs, the drive system has never seemed to get any cheaper.

I understand that the Tesla Roadster and Tzero are the kind of vehicles that get press and investors excited, they just aren’t necessarily the kind of vehicles that scale downward very well.

We started discussing a joint venture in which they could introduce the technology in their market and we would market it in the U.S. Ultimately, they decided the didn’t even want to try a test of their market, no matter what the terms.  They just wanted to OEM to us.

Over the past few months, I am starting to see a change in attitude–at least from the better run manufacturers.  Increasingly, Chinese manufacturers are clueing in to the fact that having no share of the IP or trademarks and copyrights, let alone the sales margins available in Western markets, means that they are destined to keep lowering their OEM prices to compete with the factory down the street.  

It has been a while since I had a meeting in which a company simply wanted to build product for us.  I’ve talked to friends who hate this change and are moving towards the next low cost manufacturing region (usually Vietnam).  Personally, I like the idea of a manufacturer who is a partner and therefore has a stake in maintaining quality.  One of the great difficulties of doing business in China has always been making sure that you actually got what you ordered, on time and to the specifications you had already agreed to.

I’d already heard about the rash of factory closings in my industry. The estimates at the May 2008 Shanghai bike show were that as many as 35% of the electric bike factories in China might close. This was an industry that was severely overbuilt and full of “factories” that didn’t really build much, they just ordered parts from other factories and put them together. Factories like that, which don’t originate and don’t have any IP of their own, can only compete on price and, ultimately, damage their market by constantly driving down retail pricing.

I’d seen similar stories about contractions in other industries as well but that stat in the paper put a new spin on it.  So much of the Chinese move from poor agrarian society to “middle class” is based on migrant workers moving into the cities for jobs.  I visited a farming community in Anhui about 18 months ago and everyone there seemed to be under 10 or over 55.  Everyone in the middle was off in the city earning money and sending it back to the farms.  I’ve also talked to numerous factory workers who viewed this as their path up the economic ladder.  If this reversal goes on for a substantial time, I wonder how it might affect the stability of the society there.

What was really interesting is that most of the American manufacturers were showing similar concepts which had not been publicized nearly as much as the Volt.  GM clearly decided to create a brand name for a drive concept.  The Volt itself, as a vehicle, has never been clearly defined.  It has undergone numerous design changes but by pushing the name, GM has a brand that says “Clean, Clever Future Transportation Alternative”.  In fact, the mini-van that Chrysler was displaying actually makes a lot more sense and is something worth keeping an eye on.  It is targeted at a demographic that drives shorter distances and the large amount of floor space makes a natural location for batteries.

The other interesting thing that was evident at the show is that a de facto standard for the pure electric drive option has developed.  I don’t know if GM’s early publicity of 40 miles on a charge was a result of extensive market testing or technological limitations and trade-offs but all the other manufacturers have bought into that number because it was on everyone else’s vehicle as well.  In the same way that 20 miles on a charge quickly became the standard claim that electric bikes had to be able to make a few years ago, 40 miles on pure electric drive seems to be the starting bid necessary for viable plug-in hybrids.

“Do you drive around town for the most part?  How many miles a day?”  Most people have honestly never thought about it.  When I try to explain that commuters who travel long highway stretches everyday, like me, are really better off waiting for the new, clean diesels.  If they run errands on surface streets, the Prius may be a good solution.  By the time I get into an even cursory explanation of total carbon footprint (Where were the batteries made?  What happens to them when they are used up?…), their eyes glaze over.

This is all a long-winded way of getting into a new approach to transportation.  Most Americans can walk, maybe ride a bike, or climb in a 2 ton car.  That’s the extent of their transportation alternatives and that has to change.  If you live 8 or 10 blocks from your kid’s school and a grocery store you need a light electric trike to do those errands.  If you make short trips, a small electric car makes sense.  The trick here is that those alternative vehicles have to be affordable so that you don’t necessarily have to choose only one.

Manufacturers and distributors also have to understand this new approach.  In the same way that your TV used to have 4 or 5 stations and that was it, Americans climbed in a car for whatever they needed to do.  Increasingly, there is not going to be a single answer for everyone.  That means when considering a new vehicle, you can’t realistically expect it be the solution for everyone.  In the same way that not everyone watches Animal Planet, not everyone will buy an electric trike.  That doesn’t mean it isn’t a viable product.  It just means you have to target your sales better and have realistic expectations.

While I know that blogs are free to cover anything that springs to the author’s mind, I’m really here to talk about the world of alternative power vehicles.  My speciality is electric drives.  I’ve worked on everything from electric bikes up through electric cargo trucks and travelled around the world doing it.

I had actually intended to start blogging at the beginning of the year so the first few entries will actually be looking backwards.  At least until I get a feel for how to do this.

So if anyone is here, be patient while I learn.